Who Won Iowa?

Santorum, I think. For Romney, a win by 8 votes is hardly a win at all. Romney may still end up taking the nomination, but the public need for some (any) Not-Romney candidate is stacking one humiliation after another on Mitt's back. His ambition must be bottomless to keep going after 3/4 of right leaning people have clearly shown that they don't want him, don't need him, don't like him.

So, Bachmann is out. Her votes will go to Santorum. Perry is (most likely) out, his votes will probably help Mitt more than anyone else. Gingrich stays in, for now.

It's important to point out that Santorum's recent surge is entirely thanks to timing. Focus turned to him at the last minute, and he got a well timed boost. He, his past and his positions have not yet been scrutinized like Gingrich/Cain/Perry/Bachmann, so he may lose a lotta starch once that blowback hits. He won't place high in New Hampshire, though, so his next best bet is South Carolina.

Paul may do well in NH, but I have no clue how SC will swing. I know that Huntsman has bet everything on NH, and is polling well there. If he wins NH outright, he'll get some focus, but anything less than 1st place won't be good enough. If he doesn't win there, I expect him to drop out.

Overall - I wouldn't bet on Santorum lasting for long, especially in super tuesday or open primary states. He's way, way too socially conservative (read: theocrat). I see this shaping up over the next couple of weeks as Paul/Romney/Gingrich. If it boils down to Romney and Paul, I think that would look extremely good for Ron Paul. But I dunno if that'll happen. Either Gingrich or Santorum will stick around to give the crazies someone to vote for.

Mahalo.