These primaries have been incredibly dull for me. In my opinion, when following the candidates, we're not so much measuring the merits of the candidates, or their likeliness to win, but rather we're grading them by how much political baggage they carry, and the various points of concern for each. It's, in essence, a collection of losers, and it'll be a bloody war of attrition to decide who will earn the right to look ridiculous in a general election.
Let's spice this up a bit by making a game of it. Each of us is given 10 imaginary dollars to bet on whichever candidates we want, in whatever proportion that we want. I'll offer the house odds on each standing candidate, and we'll place our bets in the comments section. When the race is over, we'll tally up a winner, who'll receive the glory.
Note: This is just a bet on who the winner of the GOP primary will be. The outcome of the general election doesn't figure as a part of this in any way.
On to the candidates...
Rating: Secure
Mitt Romney 3 to 2
Rick Perry 2 to 1
Rating: Growth
Jon Huntsman 5 to 1
Michelle Bachman 4 to 1
Paul Ryan (should he run) 5 to 1
Rating: Speculative
Newt Gingrich 15 to 1
Herman Cain 20 to 1
Sarah Palin 20 to 1
Ron Paul 20 to 1
Rick Santorum 15 to 1
Gary Johnson 30 to 1
Rating: Junk
Jonathon Sharkey 100 to 1
Buddy Roemer 100 to 1
Andy Martin 100 to 1
Fred Karger 100 to 1
Thaddeus McCotter 100 to 1
Jimmy McMillan 1000 to 1
For me, I'll do
ReplyDeleteRomney $3
Perry $2
Huntsman $5
Huntsman really hasn't made a good showing so far, but I want to make it interesting by putting some good money on him as a dark horse guy. He's bland and decidedly un-teaparty but I think he's the only other candidate (besides Romney) who's straightlaced and uncontroversial enough to seem "presidential".
I'll go
ReplyDeletePerry $5
Romney $3
Paul $1
Palin $1
I'm sadly confident it will be Perry, but I like them thar odds on Paul and Palin.
I'm wondering if we'll ever hear from Matt again. Probably too busy with his learning books, and other high-minded rarified things that don't involve coming to my BBQ.
ReplyDeleteTrust me when I say I want to come to your BBQ. It simply isn't feasible right now. Also, graduate school requires A LOT of reading.
ReplyDeleteRick Perry $10
Romney and Huntsman's stance as "non-christian" Christians is likely to hurt their chances of winning. Good ol' fashioned two testament Christians just don't feel like they have much in common with those taking up a third installment. Furthermore, Huntsman made the political mistake of being honest:
"To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy." Source wikipedia.
Stating a belief in evolution (Or rather, more appropriately stated, accepting the data which demonstrates evolution as being a biological law) will only serve to diminish Huntsman's chances of winning the Christian Fundamentalists vote.
Now, by no means do I want Rick Perry to be President, but I do think he has the best chances of becoming the GOP candidate. He has the religious advantage. His tenure as governor has seen some job growth in Texas (certainly something he and his supporters would be able to play up). He placates Tea Party activists. Finally, and I could be wrong about this, but my initial sense of the man is that he has that "my idiot buddy" appeal that originally made George W. Bush so popular.
One of the major cons of Rick Perry is that God doesn't like him. Rick's stadium prayer event failed to appease the wrath of God, as He decided instead to punish America with a drop in the stock market. Also, Hurricane Irene was probably caused by God's hatred of Rick Perry...and American's in general.
Understood. I'm only giving you a hard time, and taking the opportunity to be a prickly pear. No hard feelings about either BBQ or blog, just trying to get your attention.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure about Perry. I think his value and feasibility now is going to be the highest it ever gets, but I could regret these words.