"I never play the opening rounds. Inconsequential." - Some douchebag negotiator from Star Trek
I love election season. It's what I obsess over in place of sports. I also love making predictions. But that joy is tempered by the knowledge that political pundits are almost guaranteed to be wrong in their predictions. I read a study once which estimated that such predictions had a higher average chance of success if the pundits simply threw a dart at the possibilities, rather than giving an honest opinion. Since I'm not a professional, I'd say my odds of failure are pretty significantly multiplied. Oh well, bite me, it's fun!
Reviewing the field of GOP contenders, it's hard to imagine any of them actually beating Obama. Some are appealing in some kind of hypothetical, academic sense. And it's not that our President is overwhelmingly popular, either. It's just that I can't see any of them holding both the necessary knowledge of policy, or the personal gravitas to come off as "presidential" enough to be a viable candidate.
Let's take a look.
Rick Santorum - Everything that I know about this man suggests that he may be the Anti-Christ. The fact that the man is a devoted Catholic does not assuage my fears. A noted enemy of The Gays, Santorum has spoken against the culture of "'private' moral matters" that allow the spread of homosexuality. Even GOP base as crazy as they are, I find this guy too much of a social conservative to penetrate. PRACTICALLY NIL
Ron Paul - I love Ron Paul almost as much as I love taffy. However, I don't love him enough to cast my vote for him as President Of These United States. His blunt honesty about matters of the deficit and foreign intervention bring me great joy. However, he also wants to wants to destroy the Fed and return us to the gold standard, which seems, well... Crazy. Ron's great at winning straw polls, but not great at winning elections. He may, however, end up being remembered as the "John the Baptist" for his son's future presidential run. That aside, UNELECTABLE
Newt Gingrich - Name one nice thing about Newt. Not about his policies or his career, but about the man personally. Exactly. UNELECTABLE.
Tim Pawlenty - I want to make a prediction that Tim Pawlenty's penis will, at some point in the future, be caught in someplace it's not supposed to be. Why? I can't say. He just looks like the kind of goofball who's probably into the bathroom scene. Or the hooker scene or something. Every time I see his ridiculous countenance, I picture him locked in orgasm-face, with the look of creamy satisfaction as his budding relationship with his 17 year old male intern finally reaches it's culmination. But, other than that I haven't got a whole lot against him. Too goofy looking to place high, though. PROBABLE FAILURE
Herman Cain - Herman Cain is the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza. I'm unfamiliar with the man, but very familiar with the pizza. If the art is representative of the artist, I predict he will show himself to be thick, cheesy with a soft, butter crust. 18" WIDE; A POUND OF CHEESE
Mike Huckabee - I'm selling my stock in Mike Huckabee, if anyone cares and is still buying. I considered Mike the frontrunner since 2008. He was affable, well spoken, and capable of delivering a speech. His policy record was mixed, which can sometimes be an asset in general elections. He had some social conservative credentials, but he also seemed relatable to the general public. Now he's seems to be steadily accelerating toward wierdness. He says strange things and he's recently produced some bizzare cartoon propaganda for children. I'm not even certain if he can make it to the primaries at all. PROBABLE FAILURE.
Donald Trump - Please don't be mistaken. Mr. Trump is not running for President. He's just a clown, hired by Sarah Palin to warm up the audience for the next few months before the Iowa Caucus gets underway. Then it gets real. N/A.
Mitt Romney - Mitt might have a chance of making a good showing in the general election. But he's been living in hypothetical land too long, and I have a feeling that he's not tough enough to survive the opening round melee. He'll be evicerated over his record as Governor of Massachusetts, and even if he does survive long enough to drag his sorry carcass in to the ring, he'll shatter into a thousand pieces in the general election. PROBABLE FAILURE
Mitch Daniels - Nobody's really heard of this guy. I'd like to see him be a dark horse candidate that really ends up giving a good show, but it's still too early to tell. He's what I would call a "serious" conservative, in that he doesn't believe in fairy tales and his policies are based in reality, geared towards actually getting results. From what I know, I like the man. However, what matters is not what he is, but what he becomes. He'll have to pivot if he makes it deep into the primaries, and pivot again if he makes it to the general election. That is, in the end, what will matter. I'll be watching this one.. UNDECIDED...
Sarah Palin - The less said, the better. We all know what she is, and what she represents, I think (nothing, except for naked ambition). She may cause some sort of singularity, or black hole because of two opposing possiblities of equal weight and likelyhood. Either she's so much of a maniac that she's totally unelectable, or she's so much of a maniac that she must be elected president so that the gateway to hell may be opened on earth. It's still possible that some combination of catastrophic events, in the right sequence cause Sarah Palin to be elected President. Someone of her character has no business in the PTA, let alone public matters. This possiblity is already too close to occuring. For my comfort anyway. Still. POSSIBLE ARMAGEDDON
I just read that Huckabee won't seek the nomination. I waited too long to sell. My stock is worthless...
ReplyDeleteRick Santorum - Well, at least he is honest about what he believes. Too bad his beliefs are batshit crazy, especially his almost Orwellian disregard of the right to privacy. I would personally prefer not to have Mr. Santorum peeking in through my window. I really don't want a president who is going to shove his moral initiatives down our throats.
ReplyDelete"Everything that I know about this man suggests that he may be the Anti-Christ. The fact that the man is a devoted Catholic does not assuage my fears."
Well, isn't the Anti-Christ suppose to pose as a devout Christian, anyway?
Ron Paul - You know, for how popular Ayn Rand's books are, you would think a guy like Ron Paul would stand more of a chance. It goes to show that either people don't actually support Rand's beliefs, or they don't bother to read the books. Perhaps people prefer to use them as door stoppers?
Newt Gingrich - He wouldn't survive the smear campaign.
Tim Pawlenty - Yeah...I got nothin'
Herman Cain - Perhaps he will replace Social Security and Medicare with 25% off pizza coupons?
Mike Huckabee - The only thing I really like about Huckabee is his support for renewable resources. He did make a rather bold claim when he said he could make the US energy independent by a second presidential term, though. Other than that he seems a bit to socially conservative for my tastes.
Donald Trump - Trump started his "campaign" by promoting the birther conspiracy theory. How can we take this man seriously?
Mitt Romney - Meh...I got nothin'
Mitch Daniels - This guy looks like he would be the GOP's best bet. His policies are practical and he's not afraid to stir up a little controversy when it's truly necessary. I have some issues with him, but honestly, I might be convinced to vote for him if he were nominated.
Sarah Palin - I recall reading an opinion piece in which someone thought Palin and Glenn Beck were going to team up in a bid for the GOP nomination. I was frightened.
A pound of cheese beats a pound of flesh any day. I just may vote pizza party.
ReplyDelete"It goes to show that either people don't actually support Rand's beliefs, or they don't bother to read the books."
ReplyDeleteLibertarian ideals are the drunk, horsefaced single girl to the Conservative movement's desperate 3 A.M. frat boy. The only difference is, Libertarians have done the morning after walk of shame so many times that they no longer actually feel shame (or are aware that they're being used at all).
Tea Party activists range all of the place, idealogically. Even among those that are consistent, the new orthodoxy is actually quite anti-libertarian. They can ape the "revolutionary" rhetoric of folks like Ron Paul, but they don't share the same values.
Also, every time I see someone using the phrase "going Galt" in reference to themselves, I'd like to ask them what the fuck they're still doing here, as they should have left us Looters and headed off to the hills a long time ago, living a solitary life spent pulling themselves up by their bootstraps or some such thing.
There are so many Herman Cain pizza jokes I'd like to make if he gets far.
ReplyDeleteBy far my favorite scenario is imagining him in a presidential debate, providing responses only in the form of pizza toppings.
"Mr. Cain, you have two minutes to respond. What is your perspective on welfare reform?"
"Hmm.. Pepperoni. Banana Peppers. Pepperoni. Onions."
"Uh huh... Can you elaborate on that answer? You still have a minute forty seven."
"Hah-hah!... Olives."
An interesting candidate you left out is Jon Huntsman, former governor of Utah (I think) and ambassador to China.
ReplyDeleteHis governor record included prolife, progun, tax cutting, he's got foreign policy credentials fromt he ambassadorship, he's young(ish) and he's got crossover votes from working well with Obama as ambassador.
His toughest challenge would be turning on Obama after working well with him. I think he can avoid that by NOT jumping in with the Obama is the devil campagin. A more civil approach could lend this fresh face a fighting chance.
As for the rest:
Santorum looks like a guy that will hang in there most of the way and if a moderate gets the nomination could end up a VP.
Ron Paul, it's all been said.
I can see Newt as another guy that hangs in a round or two but not terribly long. His past is just so...well known. Of course that means likely less surprises. VP candidate at best.
Tim Pawlenty has the record to become a front runner. He won't start that way since no one knows who he is but his record in a Democratic state was solid. Possible in my mind....of course that's pending your scenario not occuring.
Mitt Romney - Welcome to the opening act. He'll blow a bunch of his money for nothing.
I'm not sold on Mitch Daniels but he suggested a truce on social issues while we fix the economy... I love that. I hate abortion and I'm not sold on other aspects of the democratic agenda but I say we trade abortion legislation for gay marraige legislation. We drop ours if you drop yours, until we get out of this economic mess.
Sarah Palin- This really can't happen right? RIGHT? RIIIIIGHT? I mean shit if we're that dumb, we deserve whatever happens to us.
I still don't want to count Mitt out just yet. However, I think he'll have a harder time this year than he did in 08 for sure. Even ignoring the hard right shift of the last 2 years, in an election like this, which is basically Obama's to lose, they're going to be more apt to take risks on a new face. High-risk, high-reward type thing.
ReplyDeleteI've heard Huntsmans name a few times but haven't focused on him too much. I have a feeling that a lot of the interest is going to be more dark horse candidates like Pawlenty/Daniels/Huntsman. I could see Mitt winning in New Hampshire, but dunno for sure. What worries me most is Iowa picking someone like Palin or Santorum.
I doubt that a deal on either abortion or gay marriage, or both, would work. Public opinion is steadily turning in favor of gay marriage, so liberals have no incentive to make a deal now. Even if they did, banning abortion has Roe vs Wade to get through which is a matter for the Supreme Court. Putting everything aside but public opinion, I doubt a majority would support an outright ban. Maybe something like "only before the third trimester", or "no partial birth abortion". But that's just an academic fun-guess.